The Behavior of the Iraqi Voter for Post-2003 Era

Abstract

Despite the many elections which have been held since the fall of the Baath regime, the vast majority of the Iraqi electors is still not orientated and finds it so difficult to make the right decision. That is simply related to the unresolved ethnic, sectarian and societal conflicts from which the Iraqi society suffers. The aim of this paper is to analyze the factors which shape or, at least, influence the choice of the Iraqi electors. Further, the paper will attempt to predict the outcome of the next parliamentary elections, or the significant change in the distribution of the parliamentary seats among the Iraqi major political parties. Theoretically, the paper will rely on four models; 1) the party-identification model, 2) the sociological model, 3) the rational choice model, and 4) the dominant-ideology model, to explain the behavior of the Iraqi elector. The research will also place a heavy emphasis on the so-called ‘short-term influences’, such as armed conflicts, ethnic disputes, high rate of unemployment, poverty, and its strong impact on the elector’s choice. On the basis of this theoretical framework, the research will conclude that a significant change is likely to occur in the next parliamentary elections.